Product demand forecasting

ABSTRACT

Embodiments include a system for forecasting demand data for new products. The system and method may include generating a phase-in group profile based on similar products. The phase-in group profile may have multiple demand profiles for low, medium and high demand variations. These demand profiles may be applied to new products in the same phase-in group to generate a forecast profile.

BACKGROUND

1. Field of the Invention

The invention relates to automated supply chain management.Specifically, predicting future demand for a set of new products.

2. Background

A supply chain is a network of retailers, distributors, transporters,warehouses, and suppliers that take part in the production, delivery andsale of a product or service. Supply chain management is the process ofcoordinating the movement of the products or services, informationrelated to the products or services, and money among the constituentparts of a supply chain. Supply chain management also integrates andmanages key processes along the supply chain. Supply chain managementstrategies often involve the use of software to project and fulfilldemand and improve production levels.

Logistics is a subset of the activities involved in supply chainmanagement. Logistics includes the planning, implementation and controlof the movement and storage of goods, services or related information.Logistics aims to create an effective and efficient flow and storage ofgoods, services and related information from a source to the targetlocation where the product or source is to be shipped to meet thedemands of a customer.

The movement of goods and services through a supply chain often involvesthe shipment of the goods and services between the source location atwhich the product is produced or stored and the target location wherethe product is to be shipped to the wholesaler, vendor or retailer. Theshipment of products involves a transport such as a truck, ship orairplane and involves the planning of the quantity of the products to beshipped in the transport. The source location from which a set ofproducts is shipped on a transport is selected based on the availabilityof the products at the source location.

Supply chain management systems generate demand forecast data based on apast order or demand history for each product to be shipped. Newproducts do not have a past order or demand history. This forces a humanguess to be used to determine shipment and inventory levels for newproducts. As a consequence, poor guesses result in inappropriatequantities of new items being shipped to target locations andinefficient use of inventory space at source and target locations.

SUMMARY

Embodiments include a system for forecasting demand data for newproducts or products without a demand or order history. The system andmethod may include forecasting demand for a chosen time period. Aforecast profile may be generated based on demand patterns in similarproducts. The group phase-in profiles may be utilized to calculatedemand for a new product over the chosen time period.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

Embodiments of the invention are illustrated by way of example and notby way of limitation in the figures of the accompanying drawings inwhich like references indicate similar elements. It should be noted thatdifferent references to “an” or “one” embodiment in this disclosure arenot necessarily to the same embodiment, and such references mean atleast one.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of one embodiment of a process for generating agroup phase-in profile.

FIG. 2 is an example phase-in group data set.

FIG. 3 is an example sorted phase-in group.

FIG. 4 is an example demand volume and standard deviation for eachdemand profile.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart of one embodiment of a process generating aforecast profile for a new product.

FIG. 6 is a diagram of a distributed new product forecast system.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of one embodiment of a process for generating agroup phase-in profile. In one embodiment, the process may be a part ofa planning service manager or similar software application that providesa user with a set of tools for managing the logistics of supply chainmanagement. The process to generate a group phase-in profile may beembodied in a module, service or similar program for use by the planningservice manager or for stand alone usage. A group phase-in profile maybe a data structure that may be used to represent the demand patternsfor a set of constituent products. As used herein a ‘set’ may denote anynumber of items including one item.

In one embodiment, a set of products may be designated by a user to beprocessed for use in generating a group phase-in profile by a groupphase-in generator module (block 101). In one embodiment, the set ofselected products may have associated data stored in a database orsimilar persistent storage system that is accessible to the planningservice manager or group phase-in profile generator module. The dataassociated with each product may include demand or order history data, aphase-in group designation, production effective date (PED) and similarhistory data. The selected data may be loaded by the phase-in profilegeneration module to be processed (block 103). In one embodiment, thedata may be loaded from a master product file, database or similarsystem.

In one embodiment, the set of products may be filtered to removeproducts that do not meet designated criteria (block 105). The data maybe filtered to remove data related to products that do not havedesignated phase-in groups, PEDs, sufficient history length, that aresuccessor products or based on similar criteria designated by a user. Inone embodiment, a minimum history length of a year may be designated asa filter criteria.

In one embodiment, the remaining products and their associated data maybe sorted into phase-in groups (block 107). The products and theirassociated data may be sorted based on the designated phase-in group ofthe product. A phase-in group may contain any number of products and anyamount of history data. In one embodiment, products in a phase-in groupmay have similar characteristics that makes their demand volume likelyto be similar over time. In one embodiment, the user may designate ahistory range for data to be utilized. Data associated with the productoutside the range may not be retrieved or may be subsequently discardedif present. The products and their associated data may be structured asa group phase-in profile.

In one embodiment, if previously generated group phase-in profiles existthey may be deleted (block 109). In another embodiment, old groupphase-in profiles may be archived or deleted after a new group phase-inprofile is completed. Group phase-in profiles may be created orprocessed one by one or in parallel, if multiple groups are in theselected product set. Old group phase-in profiles may be deleted ascorresponding new group phase-in profiles are generated or processed.

In one embodiment, a phase-in group chosen for processing may have itsconstituent products and their associated data filtered based on a setof parameters specified by the user (block 111). The parameters mayinclude length or number of history periods covered by the associateddata, volume/demand variation limits, PED dates and similar parameters.The criteria may be required of a product over history range designatedby the user. In one embodiment, products not meeting the criteria may beexcluded from further use in generating the group phase-in profile. Inanother embodiment, the products and data may be deleted from the groupphase-in profile.

In one embodiment, a check may be made after filtering the products inthe phase-in group to determine if a minimum number of products remainin the group (block 113). A user may specify any number as a minimumproduct number. A minimum number of products may be specified to ensurethat a group phase-in profile has sufficient data to provide an accurateor representative profile. In one embodiment, if the minimum productcount is not met for a phase-in group then no group phase-in profile maybe created (block 125). The process may then check to determine ifadditional groups remain to be processed (block 123). If no groupsremain to be processed the group phase-in generator module may exit orhalt the processing of product groups (block 127). If additional groupsremain to be processed then the application proceeds to the next groupto be processed.

In one embodiment, if there are a sufficient number of products in thegroup, a high and low volume average may be calculated for thedesignated time period (block 115). The low volume demand average may becalculated by averaging the demand for the time period using the twolowest demand volume products in the phase-in group or a similar subsetof products in the phase-in group. Similarly, the high volume demandaverage may be calculated by averaging the demand for the time periodusing the two highest demand volume products in the phase-in group or asimilar subset of products. A medium volume demand average may also becalculated utilizing the remaining product volume demand for the timeperiod, e.g., those products not utilized to calculate the low and highdemand volume average. These averages may be stored temporarily or aspart of the group profile phase-in data structure. If there are a smallnumber of products, this categorization may be skipped. If there are alarge number of products in the group, additional categories of demandaverages may be calculated. The number of averages calculated andcategories created may be determined by a user setting volume variationpercentage parameters or similar parameters that indicate the criteriafor creating additional categories that require defining averages.

In one embodiment, all of the products in the phase-in group may besorted into a set of categories based on their demand volume for thetime period (block 117). The categories may include low demand volume,medium demand volume, high demand volume or additional variations onthese demand levels or subsets of these demand levels. The low, mediumand high demand volume categories may be defined in relation to the low,medium and high demand volume averages. Products may be sorted intothese categories by comparing the demand volume to each average andgrouping the product with the average to which it is closest. Each ofthese grouping may form a part of a separate demand profile within thegroup phase-in profile.

In one embodiment, each demand profile may have a demand volumecalculated for each segment of the designated time period as well as astandard deviation for the time period (block 119). For example, if thetime period is six months and the segments of the time period aremonths, a demand volume may be calculated for each month in each demandprofile by averaging demand volume for the products in the demandprofile for each month. In this example, the months may not be from asingle calendar month, but corresponding months subsequent to eachproduct PED. Thus, the first month each product was available may be thefirst month in the demand profile for each product.

In one embodiment, the group phase-in profile including its constituentdemand profiles may be stored in a persistent storage system (block121). The group phase-in profile may be stored as a discrete datastructure, a set of data structures or similar storage format. After thegenerated group phase-in profile has been completed and stored, theapplication may continue processing the selected set of products bydetermining if further phase-in groups remain to be processed (block123). If no groups remain to be processed, then the group phase-inprofile generator may terminate or end its processing of the set ofproducts (block 127). If further groups remain to be processed the groupphase-in profile generator may start the processing of the next phase-ingroup.

In one embodiment, the process of generating a group phase-in profilemay be repeated on a periodic basis or on receipt of updated demanddata. Updated demand data may be received and made available to theplanning services manager over time. For example, additional demand datamay be received periodically from retailers. The group phase-in profilegeneration process may be run each time updated demand data is madeavailable or on a periodic basis. In one embodiment, a check may be madeto determine if more products have been added to a phase-in group or ifthe prior product data has been updated before running an update. If noproducts or product data has been added or updated, then the groupphase-in profile does not need to be updated.

FIG. 2 is a chart of an example representation of a phase-in group. Inone embodiment, the phase-in group may be composed of a set of products203 (labeled A-O). These products may each have a demand volume history201 that is composed of the number of products shipped, sold orsimilarly required for each segment of a selected time period. In thisexample, the selected time period 205 ranges from January 2000 throughDecember 2000. The time period is divided into a set of segments. In theexample, the time period is divided into months. The phase-in group mayalso track the PED 207 for each product. Data in the phase-in group maybe in any form or metric. In the example, the data is in the form ofunits shipped in the context of supply chain management. The time periodmay have any length, start date, end date or similar definition. Thetime period may be subdivided in any manner including, months, weeks,days, hours or similar subdivisions or combinations thereof.

FIG. 3 is a chart of an example representation of the sorted andfiltered phase-in group from FIG. 2. The sorted phase-in group includesa set of products 203 meeting all the requirements of the filterprocess, demand volume data 201 for a desired time period 301 or minimumdata set size; an accumulated demand 317 for the time period or dataset; average demand volume 309, 311, 313 for a set of demand profilesand labels or indicators 303, 305, 307 for each product categorizingthem into the demand profiles.

In the example, the set of products is filtered to remove products thatdo not have at least six months of demand data. Products E, G and N wereremoved for lacking the requisite history data. The products are sortedaccording to total demand volume 317 for the time period 301. The timeperiod is a six month time period. The data for each product for the sixmonths subsequent to the PED of each product is utilized. Low demandprofile average 313 is an average of products F and L. High demandprofile average 313 is an average of products A and D. Medium demandprofile average 311 is an average for the remaining products.

The products F, L and H are assigned a low demand profile indicator 303,because the total demand for each of these products for the time periodis closest to the low demand profile average. Similarly, the remainingproducts are assigned either medium demand profile or high demandprofile indicators based on the average to which they are closest.

FIG. 4 is a chart of an example generated demand profile set based onthe sorted phase-in group of FIG. 3. The demand profiles 401, 403, 405are composed of data values 407 for each of the time segments 301 and astandard deviation calculation 409. Each demand profile 401, 403, 405may have its data values 407 calculated by averaging the demand volumevalues for its constituent products for the time segment. Thus, the lowdemand profile for month one has a value of one which is the averagedemand volume for products F, L and H in month one of the time period.The remaining demand volume values may be calculated in a similarmanner. The standard deviation may be calculated using any standarddeviation formula.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart of one embodiment of a process for generating aforecast profile for a new product. In one embodiment, the forecastprofile is a set of demand volume values for a selected time period thatare chosen to reflect the expected demand. The forecast profile may beused to determine the volume of products to be shipped to a targetlocation and for similar actions. These forecast profiles may begenerated by a forecast profile generation application.

In one embodiment, a user selects a set of products that the forecastapplication is to process (block 501). The forecast application may be apart of a planning service management application or a stand aloneapplication. The set of products may be stored in a database or similarpersistent storage system accessible to either the planning servicemanagement application or the stand alone application. In oneembodiment, after the set of products is determined the applicationloads product information for processing (block 503). This informationmay include an indicator of a phase-in group to which the productbelongs, a PED, a new product indicator or similar data and information.

In one embodiment, the forecast application filters the selectedproducts based on a set of designated criteria (block 505). Criteria mayinclude requirement that a phase-in group has been assigned, a PED hasbeen assigned, a new product flag has been set, whether the product is areplacement or interchangeable product or similar filtering criteria.These criteria may be used to eliminate products that are not newproducts in need of a forecast demand volume or new products withoutrequisite data for generating a forecast demand volume.

In one embodiment, after the products have been filtered, all relatedphase-in profiles may be loaded. In another embodiment, the products maybe processed sequentially and the needed phase-in profile may be loadedfor each product as it is processed. Products may be processed seriallyor in parallel. As each product is processed a check may be made todetermine if a corresponding phase-in group profile exists (block 509).If no phase-in group profile exists then an alert may be set for a userof the forecast application (block 523). A check may then be made todetermine if any further products remain to be processed (block 521). Ifno further products remain to be processed then the forecast applicationmay terminate or end processing the selected products (block 525). Iffurther products remain to be processed, the next product or set ofproducts is selected for processing and their phase-in group profilesmay be loaded (block 507).

In one embodiment, if a phase-in group profile is available a check maybe made to determine if a demand profile has been selected or ifmultiple demand profiles are available (block 511). If the demandprofile is uncertain, an alert may be set for the user or administratorof the forecast application (block 523). A check may then be made iffurther products remain to be processed (block 521).

In one embodiment, if the demand profile is determined then the phase-ingroup and demand profile are applied to the corresponding product (block513). The demand profile data including the demand volume data for eachtime segment may be copied by the forecast application to be associatedwith the new product. A forecast for a new product may have a longer orshorter time period than the data available in the group phase-inprofile. If less data is required, then only the needed time segmentsand standard deviation data are copied from the group phase-in profile.If additional time segments are needed the final time segment value froma group phase-in profile may be utilized for all subsequent time framesin the forecast profiles. Alternatively, a trajectory of demand may becalculated based on available data to predict subsequent time periods orsimilar techniques may be utilized to generate addition time segmentvalues.

In one embodiment, this copied and derived data may be stored inassociation with the new product in a forecast profile or similar datastructure (block 515). Additional data may be set in the forecastprofile including an indicator that the data structure is a forecast fora new product, phase-in group indicator, demand profile indicator orsimilar data related to the forecast profile and product (block 517).After these additional data values and indicators have been set theforecast profile may be saved in a persistent storage system such as adatabase or similar system (block 519). If additional products remain tobe processed then the forecast application may continue to process thoseproducts.

In one embodiment, the process of generating a new product forecast anda forecast profile may be repeated on a periodic basis or on receipt ofupdated demand data. Updated demand data may be received and used toupdate the group phase-in profile over time. The forecast profilegeneration process may be run each time updated data is available or ona periodic basis.

FIG. 6 is a diagram of one embodiment of a distributed planning servicemanagement system. In one embodiment, the planning service managementsystem may be utilized as a local application 605 on a local machine601. Local application 605 may include a forecast module and phase-ingroup profile generator module. All product data may be available on thelocal machine 601. In another embodiment, the local application 605 mayaccess and utilize product data 625, profile data 627, forecast module621, phase-in group profile generator 623 or similar data orapplications on a central server 601 over a network 611. Network 611 maybe any type of network including a local area network, wide areanetwork, the Internet or similar communications system. In oneembodiment, a local node 603 may execute a local interface 607 for aremote planning service manager 619. The local interface may makecommunicate over network 611 to provide access to the planning servicesmanager 619.

In one embodiment, central server 601 may include a set of processors613, working memory 615, communication device 617, persistent storagesystem 629 and similar components. The planning service manager 619 maybe utilized remotely through a remote interface or through a localinterface to the server. The planning service manager may include aphase-in group profile generator 623 and forecast module 621. In anotherembodiment, the forecast module 621 and phase-in group profile generator623 may be separate applications. The planning service manager 619,forecast module 621 and phase-in group profile generator 623 may haveaccess to product data 625 and profile data 627. Product data 625 mayinclude a set of products, associated history data and additionalparameter data including phase-in group and similar data. Profile groupdata 627 may include stored phase-in group profiles, demand profiles,forecast profiles and similar data. In another embodiment, theseprofiles may be stored in separate storage structures.

In one embodiment, planning service manager 619, forecast module 621 andgroup phase-in profile generator 623 may be executed by a set ofprocessors 613 using working memory 615. Files 635 associated with theseapplications may be stored in a file system 633 in communication withthe set of processors 613. The file system 633 may be part of apersistent storage system 629. In another embodiment, the planningservice manager 619, forecast module 621 and group phase-in profilegenerator 623 may be separate modules.

In one embodiment, the persistent storage system 629 may include adatabase 631 to store product data 625 and profile data 627. Thepersistent storage system 629 may include a single physical storagedevice or a set of storage devices including fixed disks, opticalstorage mediums, magnetic storage mediums or similar devices. Database631 may be a relational database, object oriented database or similardatabase system.

In one embodiment, the profile generating and forecasting system may beimplemented in software and stored in a machine readable medium that canstore or transmit data such as a fixed disk, physical disk, opticaldisk, CDROM, DVD, floppy disk, magnetic disk, wireless device, infrareddevice and similar storage and transmission systems and technologies.

In the foregoing specification, the invention has been described withreference to specific embodiments thereof. It will, however, be evidentthat various modifications and changes can be made thereto withoutdeparting from the broader spirit and scope of the invention as setforth in the appended claims. The specification and drawings are,accordingly, to be regarded in an illustrative rather than a restrictivesense.

1. A system comprising: a persistent storage system to store productdata and group data; a group profile generation module in communicationwith the persistent storage system, the group profile generation moduleto receive a set of products to be processed, to retrieve product dataand group data from the persistent storage system corresponding to theset of products including a phase-in group indicator and productioneffective date (PED) for each product in the set of products, to filtergroup data for the set of products based on filtration parametersincluding a designated time period range, a designated number of timeperiods, a volume variation limit, a demand variation limit and a PEDdate, and to eliminate products that do not meet the filtrationparameters to generate a group profile; and a forecast module incommunication with the persistent storage system and group profilegeneration module, the forecast module to determine a new product isassigned to the group profile, to retrieve the group profile for the newproduct, the group profile having a plurality of demand profiles basedon similar products, each demand profile defining an average demand anddemand volume that is calculated for each designated time period to acorresponding product PED, and to forecast by a computer system demandfor the new product based on one of the plurality of demand profiles bycopying the demand volume data and adjusting a designated time period tomatch a PED and an expected product time period of the new product. 2.The system of claim 1, further comprising: an interface to accessforecast data.
 3. The system of claim 1, wherein the profile generationmodule filters product data based on minimum data requirements.
 4. Thesystem of claim 1, further comprising: a communication device to enableaccess to the demand forecast from a remote location.
 5. The system ofclaim 1, wherein the forecast module is located on a central server,further comprising: a local machine to execute a local interface toaccess the forecast module over a network.
 6. The system of claim 1,further comprising: a remote interface to access the group profilegeneration module over a network.
 7. A method comprising: receiving aset of products to be processed by a planning service managementapplication; retrieving product data and group data from a persistentstorage system corresponding to the set of products including a phase-ingroup indicator and production effective date (PED) for each product inthe set of products; filtering group data for the set of products basedon filtration parameters including a designated time period range, adesignated number of time periods, a volume variation limit, a demandvariation limit and a PED date; eliminating products that do not meetthe filtration parameters to generate a group profile; determining a newproduct is assigned to the group profile; retrieving lithe group profilefor the new product, the group profile having a plurality of demandprofiles based on similar products, each demand profile defining anaverage demand and demand volume that is calculated for each designatedtime period subsequent to a corresponding product PED; and forecastingby a computer system demand for the new product based on one of theplurality of demand profiles by copying the demand volume data andadjusting a designated time period to match a PED and an expectedproduction time period of the new product.
 8. The method of claim 7,wherein forecasting comprises: calculating a demand forecast range for atime period using a standard deviation in the group profile.
 9. Themethod of claim 7, wherein forecasting comprises: calculating a demandforecast for a period of time based on a category of the one of thedemand profiles in the plurality of demand profile in the group profile.10. The method of claim 7, further comprising: storing the demandforecast in a forecast profile.
 11. The method of claim 7, furthercomprising: receiving updated demand history data; and updatingforecasted demand based on updated demand history data.
 12. Anon-transitory machine readable medium having instruction stored thereinwhich when executed cause a machine to perform a set of operationscomprising: receiving a set of products to be processed by a planningservice management application; retrieving product data and group datafrom a persistent storage system corresponding to the set of productsincluding a phase-in group indicator and production effective date (PED)for each product in the set of products; filtering group data for theset of products based on filtration parameters including a designatedtime period range, a designate number of time periods, a volumevariation limit, a demand variation limit and a PED date; eliminatingproducts that do not meet the filtration parameters to generate a groupprofile; determining a new product is assigned to the group profile;retrieving the group profile for the new product, the group profilehaving a plurality of demand profiles based on similar products, eachdemand defining a average demand and demand volume that is calculatedfor each designated time period subsequent to a corresponding productPED; and forecasting demand for the new product based on one of theplurality of demand profiles by copying the demand volume data andadjusting a designated time period to match a PED and an expectedproduct time period of the new product.
 13. The non-transitory machinereadable medium of claim 12, wherein forecasting comprises: calculatinga demand forecast range for a time period using a standard deviation inthe group profile.
 14. The non-transitory machine readable medium ofclaim 12, wherein forecasting comprises: calculating a demand forecastfor a period of time based on one of a low demand, medium demand andhigh demand profile in the plurality of demand profiles.
 15. Thenon-transitory machine readable medium of claim 12, further comprising:storing a demand forecast in a forecast profile.
 16. The non-transitorymachine readable medium of claim 12, further comprising: updatingforecasted demand on a periodic basis with an updated group profile.